Flows Are Evidence, Not Instructions

An exchange inflow can reflect an intention to sell, collateral movement, internal wallet maintenance, or a transfer with no immediate market impact. The transaction is observable; the motivation is not.

Start With the Baseline

Compare current flows with an asset’s recent history and typical exchange activity. Absolute numbers are less useful than persistent changes relative to an established baseline.

• Prefer entity-adjusted data when available
• Separate one-off transfers from sustained behavior
• Compare netflows with total exchange reserves
• Check whether price and volume confirm the interpretation

Look for Independent Confirmation

A useful thesis should survive contact with other evidence. Holder behavior, realized profit and loss, liquidity conditions, and market structure can either reinforce or challenge the initial reading.

Define Invalidation

State what would make the interpretation less credible. If the flow reverses, reserves remain unchanged, or market structure contradicts the thesis, the signal should be reassessed.

This research is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.