Cohorts Need Context

Long-term and short-term holders are useful analytical groupings, but they are not uniform actors. A cohort metric summarizes behavior; it does not reveal every participant’s intention.

Accumulation and Distribution

Balance changes become more informative when paired with cost basis, dormancy, and realized activity. Accumulation near a cohort’s cost basis can carry a different implication than accumulation after a sharp expansion.

Regime Matters

The same holder behavior can mean different things in a trending, ranging, or stressed market. Always interpret cohort activity inside the prevailing liquidity and price regime.

Avoid Binary Labels

Replace “bullish” or “bearish” shortcuts with a conditional thesis that states the horizon, supporting evidence, and conditions that would weaken the view.

This research is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.